This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified...

Amidst global decarbonization dynamics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Digital economy, and energy prices are shaping the energy transition in a way that has never been more critical. Using MMQR and IVQR, this research investigates the effects of AI, research and development (R&D), and energy...

The stability of global energy markets is fundamental to effective energy strategy, influencing national policy and corporate investment decisions. Extreme volatility, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, exposes the limitations of conventional risk assessment tools and undermines strategic...

This paper presents the first formal comparison of Value at risk (VaR) forecasting performance across various high-frequency volatility models and conventional benchmarks using daily data in the crude oil futures market. Our analysis reveals the following key findings:(1) High-frequency data...

From a long-term perspective little is known about income inequality in Venezuela. This is regrettable as the country offers a unique opportunity to study distributional dynamics in an economy dominated by oil richness since the 1920s amid an accelerated process of structural change amid...