Search Results - subject:"Bayesian Learning"

Perception of Own Death Risk: A Reassessment of Road-Traffic Mortality Risk

Andersson, Henrik - Transportekonomi, Väg- och Transportforskninginstitut (VTI) - 2008

found confirms their findings. As in their study, risk beliefs are updated in line with the Bayesian learning model, a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005642389

The Optimal Choice of Pre-launch Reviewer : How Best to Transmit Information using Tests and Conditional Pricing

Gill, David; Sgroi, Daniel - Department of Economics, University of Warwick - 2008

A principal who knows her type can face public testing to help attract endorsements from agents. Tests are pass/fail and have an innate toughness (bias) corresponding to a trade-off between the higher probability of passing a softer test and the greater impact on agents’ beliefs from passing a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005747119

Negatively Correlated Bandits

Klein, Nicolas; Rady, Sven - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

We analyze a two-player game of strategic experimentation with two-armed bandits. Each player has to decide in continuous time whether to use a safe arm with a known payoff or a risky arm whose likelihood of delivering payoffs is initially unknown. The quality of the risky arms is perfectly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005785882

Dynamics of social trust and human capital in the learning process: The case of the Japan garment cluster in the period 1968-2005

yamamura, eiji - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

This paper examined how and the extent to which human capital and social trust are associated with the learning process of a manager in making operations decisions through experience. To this end, using a data set originally and purposively constructed by the author, I investigate the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789406

Rational macroeconomic learning in linear expectational models

Holden, Tom - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

Abstract: The partial information rational expectations solution to a general linear multivariate expectational macro-model is found when agents are uncertain about the true values of the model’s parameters. Necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence to the full information rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005837039

The Dynamic Pivot Mechanism

Bergemann, Dirk; Valimaki, Juuso - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 2008

We consider truthful implementation of the socially efficient allocation in an independent private-value environment in which agents receive private information over time. We propose a suitable generalization of the pivot mechanism, based on the marginal contribution of each agent. In the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008547443

A parsimonious model of subjective life expectancy

Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander - Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) - 2008

rational expectations paradigm and are also not in line with the predictions of the rational Bayesian learning paradigm. We … therefore introduce a model of Bayesian learning which combines rational learning with the possibility that the interpretation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008563309

On attitude polarization under Bayesian learning with non-additive beliefs

Zimper, Alexander; Ludwig, Alexander - Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) - 2008

information. Such patterns cannot be explained by the standard model of rational Bayesian learning that implies convergent beliefs …. As our key contribution, we therefore develop formal models of Bayesian learning with psychological bias as alternatives … to rational Bayesian learning. We derive conditions under which beliefs may diverge in the learning process despite the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008563353

Entropy Bounds on Bayesian Learning.

Gossner, Olivier; Tomala, Tristan - Université Paris-Dauphine - 2008

An observer of a process View the MathML source believes the process is governed by Q whereas the true law is P. We bound the expected average distance between P(xt|x1,…,xt−1) and Q(xt|x1,…,xt−1) for t=1,…,n by a function of the relative entropy between the marginals of P and Q on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009002746

Negatively correlated bandits

Klein, Nicolas Alexandre; Rady, Sven - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951567