We propose a macro-finance model in which inflation, growth, and the policy rate are driven by unobservable long-run trends and transitory cycles that investors must infer from aggregate data. Their subjective estimates of these trends, and the uncertainty surrounding them, are priced into the...

A number of learning models have been suggested to analyze the repeated interaction of boundedly rational agents competing in oligopolistic markets. The agents form a model of the environment that they are competing in, which includes the market demand and price formation process, as well as...

We document systematic parental under-reporting of children's socio-emotional difficulties relative to children's self-reports, using representative data from Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, and Australia. To study the origins of this discrepancy, we develop a simple theoretical framework...