Merkle, Christoph; Schreiber, Philipp - In: Journal of Business Economics 95 (2024) 2, pp. 467-497
We replicate and extend two studies on the dynamics of overconfidence among financial professionals. Using 20 years of data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey with over 40,000 individual forecasts of confidence intervals, we document that participants are overprecise during the entire time...