This paper develops a novel empirical framework to analyse the drivers of business expectations in the euro area. Using harmonised data from the European Commission's business surveys for manufacturing, services, and construction, we build composite business expectations indices (BEI) for...

Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970-2025) with a structural VAR analysis...