Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience...

This thesis analyzes certain aspects of the current account balance and its relationship to economic growth. Employing recently developed statistical and econometric techniques for estimation of non linear models, crises phenomena connected to the balance of payments are focused. The analysis of...

Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004, this paper analyzes the characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. A small supply of tradable goods...

This chapter surveys recent research on international financial crises. A financial crisis is characterized by a sudden, dramatic outflow of financial resources from an economy with an open capital account. This outflow may be primarily driven by the expectation of a large nominal devaluation,...

Australia’s large external deficits appear sustainable. There are, however, risks associated with the resulting external debt that need continued careful management. These deficits, which largely reflect high investment rather than low saving, should be sustainable as long as the...

The central objective of this discussion paper is to present a simple explanation of recent financial crises and, on that basis, to discuss some policy options for individual countries. Systemic policies are not discussed. More emphasis is put on understanding the nature of these crises than on...

This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds...

This chapter investigates the effect of the exchange regime on the likelihood of sudden stops. A panel probit analysis is conducted on the data of 43 developing countries from 1980 to 2010. The test investigates the interaction of surges and the exchange regime and their potential impact of the...