It is well documented that the term structure of interest rates has predictive power for real economic growth. Applying the stepwise superior predictive ability test, we find that superior models contain both a short-term rate and a term spread.

Quantitative market timing strategies have been traditionally tested in liquid commodity and financial futures, often with mixed results with respect to their performance. We extend this methodology to a non-storable commodity, freight, where hitherto this analysis has not been carried out. The...

We propose a stepwise test, Step-SPA(k), for multiple inequalities testing. This test is analogous to the Step-SPA test of Hsu, Hsu, and Kuan (2010, Journal of Empirical Finance) but has asymptotic control of a generalized familywise error rate: the probability of at least k false rejections....