In this note we derive the long-run public deficit to GDP ratio that is compatible with a sustainable public debt. Starting from the observation that a sustainable debt policy requires that the present value of public debt asymptotically converges to zero and that the debt to GDP ratio must be...

We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together...

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) remain a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s economy and growth model. However, SOEs’ quasi-fiscal activities conducted outside the fiscal framework obscure the overall fiscal stance, complicating macroeconomic management. This paper finds that the balance sheet...

Fiscal sustainability refers to a government's capacity to generate sufficient revenue to cover its expenses and repay its debts without accumulating excessive liabilities or creating new money. Recent observations indicate that Kenya's economic growth has slowed, prompting concerns about its...

This study examines the impact of key governance dimensions on public budget rationalization in Palestine from 2002 to 2023. Utilizing Legitimacy Theory, the research assesses how institutional quality affects fiscal outcomes, including revenues, expenditures, net lending, and budget balance....

This study examines the heterogeneous effects of key macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in selected MENA economies using a pooled quantile regression framework. Unlike conventional mean-based approaches, this method captures variation across different segments of the conditional...

This study examines public debt sustainability in the Eurozone by estimating fiscal reaction functions that assess how fiscal balances respond to rising public debt under heterogeneous macroeconomic conditions. Using annual panel data for 20 EU countries from 2000 to 2024, we employ fixed...

The objective of this study is to evaluate the fiscal sustainability of Local Government Units (LGUs) in the Visegrad Group economies (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia; the V4), focusing on three key hypotheses: (1) LGUs in the V4 are involved in so-called Ponzi games; (2) the adverse...