We analyse micro-level data concerning four financial variables in Sveriges Riksbank's Prospera Survey to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts provided by professionals active in the Swedish fixed-income market. Our results indicate that for the SEK/EUR and SEK/USD exchange rates, and the...

This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over the 1970-2022 period. We estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several global (demand, supply, and oil price) and domestic shocks. We report three main...

This paper explores whether different funding structures-including the source, instrument, currency, and counterparty location of funding-affected the extent of financial stress experienced in various countries and sectors during the Covid-19 spread in early 2020. We measure financial stress...

This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exchange rates based on a comprehensive set of survey forecasts for more than 50 currency pairs. At the first stage, we assess whether the policy to manage the COVID-19 pandemic affects the expected path of exchange rates over the medium...

Empirical studies have shown that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements affect the exchange rate. Because of different policy targets, the exchange rate response to specific events may vary. Based on the theory of directional change (DC), this study analyzes the effects of specific...

This study investigates the directional predictability of exchange rates in emerging markets. Using a cross-quantilogram model, we show that dependencies among emerging markets exchange rates are heterogeneous. Specifically, the Mexican peso, Brazilian real, and Turkish lira are leading emerging...