We propose a factor correlated unobserved components (FCUC) model to analyze the sticky and flexible components of U.S. inflation. The proposed FCUC framework estimates trend inflation and component cycles in a flexible stochastic environment with time-varying volatility, factor loadings, and...

Point forecasts of score-driven models have been shown to behave at par with those of state-space models under a variety of circumstances. We show, however, that density rather than point forecasts of plain-vanilla score-driven models substantially underperform their state-space counterparts in...

Point forecasts of score-driven models have been shown to behave at par with those of state-space models under a variety of circumstances. We show, however, that density rather than point forecasts of plain-vanilla score-driven models substantially underperform their state-space counterparts in...