We consider an adaptive importance sampling approach to estimating the marginal likelihood, a quantity that is fundamental in Bayesian model comparison and Bayesian model averaging. This approach is motivated by the difficulty of obtaining an accurate estimate through existing algorithms that...

W opracowaniu przedstawiono syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej w Polsce (barometr koniunktury), zbudowany na podstawie danych ankietowych Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH i Instytutu Transportu Samochodowego. Do oszacowania barometru koniunktury zastosowano podejście...

The paper studies regularised direct filter approach as a tool for high-dimensional filtering and real-time signal extraction. It is shown that the regularised filter is able to process high-dimensional data sets by controlling for effective degrees of freedom and that it is computationally...

This paper proposes the Bayesian semiparametric dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, where the density of the yield curve factors and thereby the density of the yields are estimated along with other model parameters. This is accomplished by modeling the error distributions of the factors according to a...