Search Results - subject:"Dynamic probit models"

Economic integration in a multicone world?

Volpe Martincus, Christian; Pédussel Wu, Jennifer - 2005

This paper examines whether economic integration favors countries' convergence into a common cone of diversification. We analyze the manufacturing specialization patterns for a sample of 19 current and potential European Union countries over the period 1963-1998, and assess the impact of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301120

Economic integration in a multicone world?

Volpe Martincus, Christian; Pédussel Wu, Jennifer - Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung (ZEI), … - 2005

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008611438

Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models

Ng, Eric C.Y. - In: Journal of Macroeconomics 34 (2012) 1, pp. 112-125

different dynamic probit models and the standard static model. The out-of-sample analysis suggests that the four probit models … probit models by being able to flag an early warning signal of a recession. … duration. With respect to forecasting the business cycle turning points, the static probit model is as good as the dynamic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010574749

Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models

Ng, Eric C. Y. - In: Journal of macroeconomics 34 (2012) 1, pp. 112-125

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009624471

Recession Forecasting with Dynamic Probit Models under Real Time Conditions

Proano, Christian - Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung … - 2010

In this paper a dynamic probit model for recession forecasing under pseudo-real time is set up using a large set of macroeconomic and financial monthly indicators for Germany. Using different initial sets of explanatory variables, alternative dynamic probit specifications are obtained through an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008611361

The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth and Recession in Australia

Karunaratne, Neil Dias - 1999

This paper estimates the slope of the yield curve using quarterly data on real GDP and the nominal spread proxied by the difference in returns from the 10 year bond rate and the 90 day bill rate. The time-series analysis after proper unit root tests using stationary variables revealed that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009447991

Unemployment and Liquidity Constraints

Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A.; Ioannides, Yannis M. - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 1995

and involuntary unemployment. We report estimations for a system of dynamic probit models with data from the Panel Study …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005093949