Predicting which firms will grow quickly and why has been the subject of research studies for many decades. Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate...

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters. We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers' financial stress. We focus on the arrears of...

We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes that extends the class of existing autoregressive gamma (ARG) processes in one important dimension: each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable...

Copyright law grants copyright owners exclusive rights so that they have adequate financial incentives to create and innovate. However, when firms are copyright owners, they can leverage their right to sell or distribute products exclusively and thus obtain excessive financial gains. This paper...

This paper studies the testable implication of players' collusive or cooperative behaviours in a binary choice game with complete information. In this paper, these behaviours are defined as players coordinating their actions to maximize the weighted sum of their payoffs. I show that this...

Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a method of combining predictive distributions based on agent opinion analysis theory, which encompasses many common approaches to combining density forecasts. The key ingredient in BPS is a synthesis function. This is typically specified parametrically as...

We study whether the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of firms reflect the risk from climate transition. We first construct a climate transition risk (CTR) factor by using information on the vulnerability of a firm's value to the transition to a low-carbon economy. We then document how this...

In recent years, the rise in digital payment innovations such as contactless cards and Interac e-Transfer has spurred a discussion about the future of cash at the point of sale. The COVID19 pandemic has also contributed to this discussion: While consumers reported that some merchants started to...

In this paper, we estimate the distribution of future inflation and growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for the Canadian economy at a daily frequency. To do this, we model the conditional moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of inflation and GDP growth as moving averages of...

This paper examines whether machine learning (ML) algorithms can outperform a linear model in predicting monthly growth in Canada of both house prices and existing home sales. The aim is to apply two widely used ML techniques (support vector regression and multilayer perceptron) in economic...