Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters. We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers' financial stress. We focus on the arrears of...

This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008-09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earning call transcripts and a structural...

We study whether the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of firms reflect the risk from climate transition. We first construct a climate transition risk (CTR) factor by using information on the vulnerability of a firm's value to the transition to a low-carbon economy. We then document how this...

We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes that extends the class of existing autoregressive gamma (ARG) processes in one important dimension: each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable...

Commodity markets are linked through international trade but are separated by heterogeneous regulations and input markets. We investigate theoretically and empirically how regional, as opposed to global, cost shocks pass through into global prices. Capacity constraints mitigate the output...

Copyright law grants copyright owners exclusive rights so that they have adequate financial incentives to create and innovate. However, when firms are copyright owners, they can leverage their right to sell or distribute products exclusively and thus obtain excessive financial gains. This paper...

Bayesian predictive synthesis is a flexible method of combining density predictions. The flexibility comes from the ability to choose an arbitrary synthesis function to combine predictions. I study the choice of synthesis function when combining large numbers of predictions-a common occurrence...

Predicting which firms will grow quickly and why has been the subject of research studies for many decades. Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate...

This paper studies the testable implication of players' collusive or cooperative behaviours in a binary choice game with complete information. In this paper, these behaviours are defined as players coordinating their actions to maximize the weighted sum of their payoffs. I show that this...

Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a method of combining predictive distributions based on agent opinion analysis theory, which encompasses many common approaches to combining density forecasts. The key ingredient in BPS is a synthesis function. This is typically specified parametrically as...