A dynamic modelling for heavy-tailed cylindrical time series is developed by combining score-driven models with a generalised Pareto-type cylindrical distribution. The proposed specification extends existing cylindrical models by allowing location, scale, concentration, and crucially, the tail...

The yield curve is widely regarded as a powerful descriptor of the economy and market expectations. A common approach to its statistical representation relies on a small number of factors summarizing the curve, which can then be used to forecast real economic activity. We argue that optimal...