In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2025,1expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer-term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer-term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the...

This technical report gives an overview of the data sources and methodologies used by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to compile the dataset on structural indicators of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are used in the annual SME Performance Review. The SME Performance Review is one...

Economic forecasting and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) growth prediction have become essential tools for guiding policy, business strategy, and economic development in an increasingly data-driven world. This paper reviews recent advancements in economic regression and SME growth...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

Indonesia's economy remains resilient amid worsening global conditions. GDP grew at 4.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q1-2025, slightly lower than previous post-pandemic quarters. Domestic demand was impacted by reduced government consumption and lower investment. Budget efficiency measures led...

The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside...