In this paper, we investigate the stochastic spread of epidemics and rumours on networks. We focus on the general stochastic (SIR) epidemic model and a recently proposed rumour model on networks in Nekovee et al. (2007) [3], and on networks with different random structures, taking into account...

One of the main problems in estimating stochastic SEIR models is that the data are not completely observed. In this case, the estimation is usually done by least squares or by MCMC. The Bayesian melding method is proposed to estimate SEIR models and to evaluate the likelihood in the presence of...

In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe the spread of an infective and non-mortal disease into a community numerically limited and subjected to an external infection. We make a numerical simulation that shows tendencies for recurring epidemic outbreaks and for...

We develop a model for disease spreading in networks in a manner similar to the kinetics of crystallization of undercooled melts. The same kind of equations can be used in ecology and in sociology studies. For instance, they control the spread of gossip among the population. The time t...

Immigration might be a remedy against the stress that low fertility causes to demographic and welfare systems. Sustained immigration, however, can alter both the demographic and epidemiological profiles of the receiving population. An age-structured SIR (susceptible-infective-recovered) model...

A fractional order model for nonlocal epidemics is given. Stability of fractional order equations is studied. The results are expected to be relevant to foot-and-mouth disease, SARS and avian flu.

A stochastic model for epidemic spread in a set of individuals placed upon the sites of a complete graph of relations is investigated. The model is defined by three parameters: the number of individuals or sites, N, the probability that an infected site transmits the disease to a susceptible...

We have introduced recently a model for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases, in which the social behavior is incorporated as a key factor for the further propagation of the infection. The system may be regarded as a society of agents where in principle anyone can sexually interact with...

We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized in couples and interact with each other. The different...