This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

The econometric literature has been unable to establish a robust association between foreign aid and growth and poverty reduction. In this paper we argue that aid effectiveness must be assessed using methods that go beyond cross-country regressions. We calibrate a dynamic general equilibrium...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation for Panama reports that the medium-term outlook is encouraging, assuming implementation of the authorities’ fiscal program, which should put the public debt ratio on a steadily declining path. The banking system experienced a substantial recovery in...

The staff report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation on the Philippines highlights managing short-term vulnerabilities and higher investment and growth. Power generation tariffs have been raised to substantially cut the losses of the National Power Corporation (NPC). A risk to the near-term...

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix describes Palau’s financial sector, its recent performance, and developments in regulatory reform. The paper considers illustrative scenarios of possible outcomes for public spending levels and growth under different assumptions with...

Armenia’s economy continues to perform strongly. Prudent fiscal and monetary policies and ongoing structural reforms have contributed to double-digit growth in a low-inflation environment, a continued reduction in poverty, and a notable improvement in tax performance. The Poverty...

This Selected Issues paper outlines economic developments in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) since independence in 1986, focusing on the challenges posed by dependence on foreign grants, and progress toward achieving budgetary self-reliance. Like most other Pacific islands, the RMI...

Syria faces two interrelated medium-term challenges posed by the prospective decline in its oil reserves. The recently approved five-year plan (FYP) laid down a comprehensive strategy to address these challenges. Syria’s public finances are headed for challenging times in the coming...

Since 1999, economic policies have sought to place the country on a path of sustainable growth, which would help reduce unemployment and poverty. The authorities have begun to address the risk of overheating, although demand policies may need to be tightened further. Monetary policy will be...