Search Results - subject:"Fluctuations"

Fichtner, Ferdinand; Joebges, Heike - 2024

The existing econometric evidence on the relationship between stock indices and real economic activity is inconclusive despite theoretical arguments suggesting a long-term relationship. Previous studies indicate that the link between stock prices and growth became weaker in the 1980s. In this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014471551

Stock market returns and GDP growth

Fichtner, Ferdinand; Joebges, Heike - 2024 - This version: 2023-10-06

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014450571

Job ladders by firm wage and productivity

Bertheau, Antoine; Vejlin, Rune Majlund - 2023

We investigate whether workers reallocate up firm productivity and wage job ladders, and the cyclicality of this process. We document that productivity is a better measure of the job ladder than the average wage, since high productivity firms relative to low poach more workers than high wage...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013499541

Monitoring business cycle fluctuations in Asia

Pundit, Madhavi; Ramayandi, Arief; Simba, Patrick Jaime A. - 2025

Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers … to monitor monthly business cycle fluctuations in Asia. The index summarizes a selection of updated monthly economic … improves the ability of the index to track actual fluctuations of the business cycle compared with models constructed using a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195471

Quantile VARs and macroeconomic risk forecasting

Surprenant, Stéphane - 2025

Recent rises in macroeconomic volatility have prompted the introduction of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models to forecast macroeconomic risk. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of QVAR models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment spanning 112...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015209785

Differentiable, filter free Bayesian estimation of DSGE models using mixture density networks

Naubert, Christopher - 2025

I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015209827

Relative risk aversion and business fluctuations

Hashimoto, Ken'ichi; Im, Ryonghun; Kunieda, Takuma; … - 2025

business cycle (RBC) theory, a higher degree of relative risk aversion dampens the amplitude of the consumption fluctuations … causes endogenous business fluctuations. The nontrivial steady state loses stability due to the higher degree of relative … risk aversion; thus, endogenous business fluctuations can occur. This result suggests that for a deeper understanding of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015209869

Productivity labour adjustment costs : how do new hires and leavers (incl. retirees) compare?

Vandenberghe, Vincent - 2025

Labour turnover is a crucial element of contemporary economic life. It can improve productivity if more productive workers replace less productive ones. However, in the short run, it generates sizeable labour adjustment costs (LACs), including productivity losses. This paper sheds new light on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015190183

Can teaching be taught? : improving teachers' pedagogical skills at scale in rural Peru

Castro, Juan Francisco; Glewwe, Paul; Heredia-Mayo, … - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 16 (2025) 1, pp. 185-233

We evaluate the impact of a large‐scale teacher coaching program in Peru, a context with high teacher turnover, on teachers' pedagogical skills and student learning. Previous studies find that small‐scale coaching programs can improve teaching of reading and science in developing countries....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015190318

Monitoring business cycle fluctuations in Asia

Pundit, Madhavi; Ramayandi, Arief; Simba, Patrick Jaime A. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015191532

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