Search Results - subject:"Forecast errors"

Did you mean: subject:"Forecast error" (45,091 results)

Inside the IMF "mea culpa" : a panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe

Brancaccio, Emiliano; De Cristofaro, Fabiana - In: PSL quarterly review 73 (2020) 294, pp. 225-239

The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fátas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF "mea culpa" regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012435598

Inside the IMF "mea culpa": A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe

Brancaccio, Emiliano; De Cristofaro, Fabiana - In: PSL Quarterly Review 73 (2020) 294, pp. 225-239

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015443526

Budget credibility of subnational governments: Analyzing the fiscal forecasting errors of 28 states in India

Chakraborty, Lekha; Chakraborty, Pinaki; Shrestha, Ruzel - 2020

magnitude of errors across subnational governments in India. The forecast errors in revenue receipts have been greater than …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610192

Bonds, currencies and expectational errors

Granziera, Eleonora; Sihvonen, Markus - 2020

We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel and find that it largely explains why short rates and yield spreads predict...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012614201

Fiscal policy and growth forecasts in the EU: Are official forecasters still misestimating fiscal multipliers?

Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran - 2020

Blanchard and Leigh (2013, 2014) find fiscal multipliers to be underestimated in the EU in the deep recession of the early 2010s. Using two 2013-2018 datasets for 26 EU member states, assembled from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, we show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606230

Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts

Botsis, Alexandros; Görtz, Christoph; Sakellaris, … - 2020

realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a … forecast errors are neither predictable nor autocorrelated. To arrive at this result, we develop a novel methodology to … environments where information processing is more costly. This results in major forecast errors that are predictable and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012207913

Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Expectation Formation over the Firms's Life Cycle

Chen, Cheng; Senga, Tatsuro; Sun, Chang; Zhang, Hongyong - 2020

forecast errors. However, they make more precise forecasts and less correlated forecast errors when they become more …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269538

Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations

Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert L. - 2020

that in ation expectations affect both the dispersion across forecasters and realized forecast errors. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012287905

Uncovering regimes in out of sample forecast errors from predictive regressions

Silva Neto, Aníbal Emiliano da; Gonzalo, Jesús; … - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012501495

Asymmetric investment responses to firm-specific forecast errors

Berner, Julian; Buchholz, Manuel; Tonzer, Lena - 2020

This paper analyses how firm-specific forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007 …-2011 affect firms' investment propensity. Understanding how forecast errors affect firm investment behaviour is key to mitigate … economic downturns during and after crisis periods in which forecast errors tend to increase. Our findings reveal a negative …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012203539