We use nearly a decade's worth of panel data from European Union Chamber of Commerce in China business confidence surveys to analyse the deteriorating outlooks of EU firms in China from 2017 to 2025. All firms in China currently face challenges including slow profit growth and deflation. These...

This Policy Brief explores the potential impact of forming a customs union between the European Union (EU) and key global partners (e.g. Canada, the UK, Mexico and Japan) as a strategic response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. Using the GSIM partial equilibrium model, the...

In sheer quantity, the five original BRICS countries appear impressive. They account for a substantial share of the world's population, economy, trade and muster large militaries. In January 2024, BRICS gained even more steam, by admitting four new member states that participated in the most...

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of two recent major geopolitical events on the euro area economy, namely, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To take into account the heterogeneity of geopolitical events, we do not seek to identify a homogeneous...

Greater Asia is emerging as a major factor in the global energy transition. This shift is associated with growing independence from external actors such as the European Union and the United States, with unfolding developments increasingly concentrated within the region itself. Key trends include...