Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing mortality rate is a time-varying indicator curve. Our main...

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing mortality rate is a time-varying indicator curve. Our main...

TOPALS is a relational model that can be used for smoothing and projecting age-specific rates or probabilities. TOPALS uses a linear spline to model the ratios between the age-specific rates or probabilities to be fitted or projected and a smooth standard age schedule. TOPALS is easy and...

The profile of future pensioner is built on the foundation of present employee’s profile. Today’s employee from active generations is the future pensioner of tomorrow. The reduced levels of pensions determine us to critically examine the actual retirement model. If the future would be known...

This paper considers forecasting life table, and proposes a model averaging approach to improve point and interval forecast accuracy. Illustrated by data of eleven countries, we compare point and interval forecasts among ten principal component and two random walk methods. Based on averaged...

When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for non-divergent or coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and...