Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the...

We present a non-linear solution method of saddlepoint dynamics in discrete time optimization problems. It is based on the backward attractivity of the stable manifold and is very easy to implement. After an introduction to the general method we present two applications. First we consider the...

A model of cumulative causation is extended to incorporate endogenous structural change. This is achieved via the use of a non-linear feedback of the growth rate on to the income elasticity of demand for exports. The result is a model that, under certain conditions, exhibits chaotic switches...

We present a method for identifying coarse-grained dynamics through aggregation of variables or states in linear dynamical systems. The condition for aggregation is expressed as a permutation symmetry of a set of dual eigenvectors of the matrix that defines the dynamics. The applicability of the...

It is often objected that we cannot use mathematical methods in finance because (1) finance is dominated by unpredictable unique events (the black swans), (2) there are qualitative effects that cannot be quantified, and (3) the laws themselves of finance keep on changing. In this paper we...

It is often objected that we cannot use mathematical methods in finance because (1) finance is dominated by unpredictable unique events (the black swans), (2) there are qualitative effects that cannot be quantified, and (3) the laws themselves of finance keep on changing. In this paper we...

In many professional labor markets the number of new workers follows a cyclical time path. This phenomenon is usually explained by means of a cobweb model that is based on the assumptions of myopic wage expectations and occupational immobility. Since both assumptions are questioned by the...

In many professional labor markets the number of new workers follows a cyclical time path. This phenomenon is usually explained by means of a cobweb model that is based on the assumptions of myopic wage expectations and occupational immobility. Since both assumptions are questioned by the...