The paper presents a Bayes analysis of an autoregressive-moving average model and its components based on exact likelihood and weak priors for the parameters where the priors are defined so that they incorporate stationarity and invertibility restrictions naturally. A Gibbs-Metropolis hybrid...

We provide an equilibrium framework for modeling the behavior of an agent who holds a simplified view of a dynamic optimization problem. The agent faces a Markov Decision Process, where a transition probability function determines the evolution of a state variable as a function of the previous...

This paper studies multiscale stochastic volatility models of financial asset returns. It specifies two components in the log-volatility process and allows for leverage/asymmetric effects from both components while return innovation terms follow a heavy/fat tailed Student t distribution. The two...

In a context characterized by an increasing integration among financial markets, we aim to analyze whether the ECB unconventional monetary policy shields the Eurozone stock markets against spillovers of volatility from the US stock market. We augment the Markov switching Asymmetric...

In this paper, we approached the concept of real estate bubble, analyzing the risk its bursting could generate for the Chilean financial market. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between real housing prices, the economic activity index, and mortgage interest rates denominated in...

We derive a Hattendorff differential equation and a recursion governing the evolution of continuous and discrete time evolution respectively of the variance of the loss at time t random variable given that the state at time t is j, for a multistate Markov insurance model (denoted by 2σt(j)). We...