This paper analyses the impact of various macroeconomic shocks - including aggregate demand, supply, monetary policy, real exchange rate, and budget deficit deviation shocks - on Romania's economy using a VAR model with Bayesian inference. The study captures the period following the adoption of...

Electricity price forecasting has been a topic of significant interest since the deregulation of electricity markets worldwide. The New Zealand electricity market is run primarily on renewable fuels, and so weather metrics have a significant impact on electricity price and volatility. In this...

Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two...

A modified dynamic model averaging framework, which allows for inferences regarding the shifting relevance and significance of explanatory variables, is employed to evaluate the in-sample performance of exchange rate models. This analysis is based on a set of 16,384 model specifications derived...