Early phases of design are characterized by risk and uncertainty. Appropriate accounting for this uncertainty is an important requirement for any designer. This work suggests collapsing risk and uncertainty into a single metric called the probability of success, which accounts for the...

In today?s business climate, aerospace companiesare more than ever in need of rational methods andtechniques that provide insights as to the beststrategies which may be pursued for increasedprofitability and risk mitigation. However, the use of subjective, anecdotal decision-making...

In today's business climate, aerospace companiesare more than ever in need of rational methods andtechniques that provide insights as to the beststrategies which may be pursued for increasedprofitability and risk mitigation. However, the use of subjective, anecdotal decision-making remains...

The objective of this paper is to discuss a few challenges foreseeable for future aircraft engine designs and briefly survey ongoing research that addresses these challenges. Emphasis is placed on methods for selecting commercial engine architectures. Four fundamental needs are identified and...

The methodology presented in this paper is concerned with the ability to make informed decisions early in the design time line in order to provide a feasible, viable and robust system to the customer. Increasingly, the issues of affordability, uncertainty in design and technology impact...

An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature...

The methodology presented in this paper is concerned with the ability to make informed decisions early in the design time line in order to provide a feasible, viable and robust system to the customer. Increasingly, the issues of affordability, uncertainty in design and technology impact...

Several approaches to probabilistic design have been proposed in the past. Only few acknowledged the paradigm shift from performance based design to design for cost. The incorporation of economics in the design process, however, makes a probabilistic approach to design necessary, due to the...

The growth of international markets as well as business partnerships between U.S. and Asian-based firms has lead to an increased interest in an economically viable business jet capable of supersonic cruise and trans-Pacific range with one stop over (or non-stop trans-Atlantic range) 1 . Such an...