This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of global copper supply shocks. We identify exogenous disruptions to copper supply using a Bayesian structural VAR of the world copper market that combines sign and narrative restrictions. We then trace the international transmission of the identified...

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have complicated macroeconomic forecasting and policymaking due to unprecedented disruptions in supply chains and energy markets, suggesting a new macroeconomic regime. However, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no structural...

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have complicated macroeconomic forecasting and policymaking due to unprecedented disruptions in supply chains and energy markets, suggesting a new macroeconomic regime. However, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no structural...

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions on Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy...

We identify jointly supply chain disruptions shocks and energy supply shocks together with demand shocks using a structural BVAR with narrative restrictions. The impact of adverse supply chain disruption shocks on inflation expectations and core HICP is strong and rather persistent, while the...