Transaction costs foster the creation of (new) wealth through innovation and entrepreneurship, facilitated by "elementary contracts" – risky, non-traded agreements involving time-separated exchanges. However, the current price theory ignores these crucial realities. This research models the...

This paper develops and defends a new approach to belief aggregation, involving confidence in beliefs. It is characterised by a variant of the Pareto condition that enjoins respecting consensuses borne of compromise. Confidence aggregation recoups standard probability aggregation rules, such as...

Surrogate-based optimization is commonly used in engineering design problems to determine optimal performance parameters for computationally expensive simulations. The sampling phase of surrogate optimization plays a critical role in identifying the most promising input data points for...

The distribution of income has been shown to be approximately Pareto and there are different mechanisms proposed in the literature that can generate such distribution. This paper shows that scarcity of skills and a neoclassical production function in labor can generate an exact Pareto...

Cryptocurrencies are said to be very risky, and so are the currencies of emerging economies, including the South African rand. The steady rise in the movement of South Africans' investments between the rand and BitCoin warrants an investigation as to which of the two currencies is riskier. In...

We study the in-fill asymptotics of score-driven time series models. For general forms of model mis-specification, we show that score-driven filters are consistent for the Kullback-Leibler (KL) optimal time-varying parameter path, which minimizes the pointwise KL divergence between the...