It is well established that the U.S. prewar output was more volatile and less shock persistent than the postwar output. This is often attributed to the data interpolation employed to construct the prewar series. Our analytical results, however, indicate that commonly used linear interpolation...

It is well established that the U.S. prewar output was more volatile and less shock persistent than the postwar output. This is often attributed to the data interpolation employed to construct the prewar series. Our analytical results, however, indicate that commonly used linear interpolation...

We analyze how trade affects aggregate volatility using a multi-country, multiindustry, and multi-destination framework. We decompose aggregate output growth risk into destination risk, origin risk, and idiosyncratic risk (and their covariances). We then use this framework to run counterfactuals...