We find that countries which are able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (for example because investors take a bullish view on a country's future), are more likely to develop economic difficulties later on. We obtain this result through a two-stage procedure, where a first...

We conduct a field experiment to assess whether alcohol-induced behavioural changes explain participants' recent history of violence. We find that being in a drinking environment, rather than intoxication, reduces participants' cognitive ability but increases their overconfidence. Those who...

We conduct a field experiment to assess whether alcohol-induced behavioural changes explain participants' recent history of violence. We find that being in a drinking environment, rather than intoxication, reduces participants' cognitive ability but increases their overconfidence. Those who...