Search Results - subject:"Overprecision"

Overprecision and (ir)rational inattention

Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Bulutay, Muhammed; Kassner, Bernhard - 2026

This paper integrates overprecision-a form of overconfidence where individuals overestimate the accuracy of their … beliefs-into a canonical rational inattention model. We show that overprecision distorts belief updating directly by biasing …'s predictions in a pre-registered 2 x 2 belief-updating experiment that manipulates overprecision and information costs. The results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015580502

Construction and validation of an overconfidence scale in investment decisions

Costa, Daniel Fonseca; Soares, Cláudia Cardoso; … - In: Future business journal 11 (2025) 1, pp. 1-15

Existing studies that directly measure the three types of overconfidence-overprecision, overplacement, and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015614497

Learning to be overprecise

Merkle, Christoph; Schreiber, Philipp - In: Journal of Business Economics 95 (2024) 2, pp. 467-497

We replicate and extend two studies on the dynamics of overconfidence among financial professionals. Using 20 years of data from the ZEW Financial Market Survey with over 40,000 individual forecasts of confidence intervals, we document that participants are overprecise during the entire time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015437449

Overprecise forecasts

Dong, Yi; Liu, Xuejiao; Lobo, Gerald J.; Ni, Chenkai - In: Review of accounting studies 29 (2024) 1, pp. 276-326

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015127454

Overconfidence in probability distributions : people know they don't know, but they don't know what to do about it

Soll, Jack B.; Palley, Asa B.; Klayman, Joshua; Moore, … - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 70 (2024) 11, pp. 7422-7442

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015144104

Newsvendor competition with endogenous biases

Long, Xiaoyang; Wu, Yaozhong - In: Production and operations management : the flagship … 33 (2024) 7, pp. 1552-1568

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015484487

Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions

Ferretti, Valentina; Montibeller, Gilberto; … - In: European journal of operational research : EJOR 304 (2023) 2, pp. 661-675

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013534552

What influences overprecision in judgmental forecasting?

Czupryna, Marcin; Kubinska, Elżbieta - In: Romanian journal of economic forecasting 22 (2019) 3, pp. 117-131

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420528

The micro and macro of managerial beliefs

Barrero, Jose Maria - In: Journal of financial economics 143 (2022) 2, pp. 640-667

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013401695

Safety disconnect: analysis of the role of labor experience and safety training on work safety perceptions

Lafuente, Esteban; Abad, Jesús; Vaillant, Yancy - In: Journal of industrial engineering and management : JIEM 11 (2018) 1, pp. 57-71

(over-precision bias). Originality/value: Work safety constitutes a relevant key performance indicator. The proposed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011920818