This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset...

This paper examines whether the U.S. Federal Reserve has adjusted high-powered money supply in response to macroeconomic indicators. Applying ex-post and real-time data for the postwar period, we provide evidence that nonborrowed reserves responded to expected inflation and the output-gap. While...

This paper examines whether the U.S. Federal Reserve has adjusted high-powered money supply in response to macroeconomic indicators. Applying ex-post and real-time data for the postwar period, we provide evidence that nonborrowed reserves responded to expected inflation and the output-gap. While...

This paper investigates fiscal policy sustainability in Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Venezuela using competing methodologies. Standard unit roots and cointegration analyses do not endorse the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint. In contrast, to varying degree...

This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. It contrasts this approach with financial programming and its emphasis on monetary...

This paper presents a survey of the literature on the measurement of central bank autonomy. We distinguish inputs that constitute the building blocks in the literature, and the literature that builds on them. Issues including sensitivity analysis, robustness, and endogeneity are discussed. The...

This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips)...

This paper provides some empirical estimates on how tightly is it feasible to control inflation in a very small open economy such as Iceland. Estimated macroeconomic models of Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States are used to derive efficient monetary policy...

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, as well as the euro area, using both final revised data and real-time data. We are particularly interested in the impact of adding asset prices to the standard Taylor rule specification. Since...