Search Results - subject:"Predictions"

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Grewenig, Elisabeth; Gruendler, Klaus; Lergetporer, Philipp - 2026

individuals form such beliefs by studying their predictions of experimental outcomes in a policy-relevant setting, and why their … predictions differ from expert benchmarks. We elicit forecasts from 127 professional economists and a representative sample of 6 …-expert predictions, with effects comparable in magnitude to tertiary education or structured reasoning. Our findings have important …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015617180

Which uncertainty measure better predicts gold prices? : new evidence from a CNN-LSTM approach

You, Wan-hai; Chen, Jianyong; Xie, Haoqi; Ren, Ying-hua - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 76 (2025), pp. 1-15

Quantifying the influence of uncertainty on gold prices is significant for improving related financial decision making. This study proposes a novel CNN-LSTM neural network that can extract potential features from sample data to effectively predict gold prices. Specifically, we demonstrate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015372600

Expertise and prediction accuracy

Grewenig, Elisabeth; Gründler, Klaus; Lergetporer, Philipp - 2026

individuals form such beliefs by studying their predictions of experimental outcomes in a policy-relevant setting, and why their … predictions differ from expert benchmarks. We elicit forecasts from 127 professional economists and a repre-sentative sample of 6 … non-expert predictions, with effects comparable in magnitude to tertiary education or structured reasoning. Our findings …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015609852

Demography and income in the 21st century : a long-run perspective

Brakman, Steven; Kohl, Tristan; Marrewijk, Charles van - In: Cambridge journal of regions, economy and society 18 (2025) 1, pp. 25-40

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015330473

Forecasting China bond default with severe class-imbalanced data : a simple learning model with causal inference

Peng, Mike W.; Stern, Elisheva R.; Hu, Hanwen - In: Economic modelling 144 (2025), pp. 1-16

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195157

Time-varying risk aversion and international stock returns

Guidolin, Massimo; Hansen, Erwin; Cabrera, Gabriel - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 75 (2025) 1, pp. 1-24

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015338080

The roles of global supply chain pressure and economic conditions in forecasting the VaR of commodity markets : a quantile GARCH-MIDAS approach

Li, Zhangying; Chuang, O-Chia; Gupta, Rangan; Bouri, Elie - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015446109

Short-term forecasting of the JSE All-Share Index using gradient boosting machines

Mukhaninga, Mueletshedzi; Ravele, Thakhani; Sigauke, Caston - In: Economies : open access journal 13 (2025) 8, pp. 1-25

This study applies Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) and principal component regression (PCR) to forecast the closing price of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All-Share Index (ALSI), using daily data from 2009 to 2024, sourced from the Wall Street Journal. The models are evaluated under...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015447938

Predicting the conditional distribution of US stock market systemic Stress : the role of climate risks

Caporin, Massimiliano; Caraiani, Petre; Cepni, Oguzhan; … - In: Journal of international financial markets, … 101 (2025), pp. 1-21

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015412359

Measuring long-run expectations that correlate with investment decisions

Haan, Peter; Sun, Chen; Weinhardt, Felix; Weizsäcker, Georg - 2025

Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they either predict the average of annual...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015437127