Forecasting the population of Poland is very challenging. Firstly, the country has been undergoing rapid demographic changes. In the 1990s, they were influenced by the political, economic, and social consequences of the collapse of the communist regime. Since 2004 they have been shaped by...

It is widely accepted that some of the most accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates are based on an appropriately specified GARCH process. But when the forecast horizon is greater than the frequency of the GARCH model, such predictions have typically required time-consuming simulations of the...

During the next fifty years, the growth of the population of Finland is expected to slow down, and turn into decline. The age-distribution is expected to become older because mortality declines. In particular, the share of the working age population will decline. This development is accentuated...