Search Results - subject:"Probabilities"

Parteienwettbewerb und Wahrscheinlichkeit verschiedener Koalitionsoptionen bei der Bundestagswahl 2021

Debus, Marc - In: Politische Vierteljahresschrift 63 (2021) 1, pp. 73-88

Das komplexer gewordene bundesdeutsche Parteiensystem und die Angleichung in der Stärke der Parteien bei Wahlen führt zu einem ebenfalls komplexeren Koalitions- und Regierungsbildungsprozess auf Bundes- wie Landesebene. Diese Kurzanalyse präsentiert die programmatischen Profile der im...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501683

Vulnerability and mutual insurance

Eisen, Roland - In: The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and … 46 (2021) 2, pp. 224-235

relevant, in particular when risks are large, probabilities uncertain or unknown, and events interrelated or correlated. In … probabilities connected with unforeseeable events, correlated risks and macroeconomic or demographic risks. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501874

Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US

Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021

. Second, we estimate one-step Markov-switching models with time-varying transition probabilities using the diffusion indices …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012492974

Young People between Education and the Labour Market during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

Fiaschi, Davide; Tealdi, Cristina - 2021

We analyse the distribution and the flows between different types of employment (self-employment, temporary, and permanent), unemployment, education, and other types of inactivity, with particular focus on the duration of the school-to-work transition (STWT). The aim is to assess the impact of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012597625

Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions

Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-León, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599252

Markovian approach to stock price modelling in the Nigerian oil and gas sector

Ayo, Adekunle S.; Uwabor, Eboigbe S. - In: CBN Journal of Applied Statistics 12 (2021) 1, pp. 23-43

probabilities and the steady-state distribution of all the firms are stationary at first-order, implying that chain depends on the … previous state. The steady-state probabilities of all the firms examined exhibit relatively high price stability in the long …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604582