In this paper we show how sensitivity analysis for a maintenance optimisation problem can be undertaken by using the concept of Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI). This concept is important in a decision-theoretic context such as the maintenance problem, as it allows us to explore the...

This paper reports an investigation of stock-recruitment relations for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We regard these relations as stochastic functions characterized by an expected stock-recruitment relation and deviations from this expectation driven by observational error and uncharacterised...

Percy and Alkali presented generalizations of the proportional intensities model introduced by Cox. They identified several features of these models that are particularly relevant for modelling complex repairable systems subject to preventive maintenance (PM). These include the baseline...

For autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models with infinite variance innovations, quasi-likelihood-based estimators (such as Whittle estimators) suffer from complex asymptotic distributions depending on unknown tail indices. This makes statistical inference for such models difficult. In...

Bootstrapping is used to estimate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies for rubella in England and Wales. It is assumed that rubella infection follows the deterministic age-structured model discussed by Dietz and Schenzle (1985). The bootstrap is used to estimate percentile...

We present an empirical, analytical model that estimates both temperature and seasonal response functions for the growth of wild juvenile fish without the need for costly tank experiments in less realistic conditions. 2. Analysis of monthly recapture data on the lengths and weights of individual...

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation...

The number of cases of endophthalmitis following cataract surgery caused considerable concern in a West of Scotland hospital throughout 1998 and early 1999. A multi-disciplinary team including infection control nurses, doctors, public health officials,<$>epidemiologists and statisticians was set up...</$>