Abstract Financial product prices often depend on unknown parameters. Their estimation introduces the risk that a better informed counterparty may strategically pick mispriced products. Understanding estimation risk, and how to properly price it, is essential. We discuss how total estimation...

Diese Arbeit untersucht die Anwendung von Support Vektor Machines (SVMs) zur Vorhersage der Insolvenz von deutschen Unternehmen. Die Vorhersage basiert auf 24 finanziellen Kennzahlen, die in vier Kategorien unterteilt sind: Profitabilität, Fremdfinanzierung, Liquidität und Aktivität. SVMs...

This study focuses on dynamic changes in survival probabilities over the lifetimes of hedge funds. To model such probabilities, a mixed Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model-specifically, a survival/hazard model with time-varying covariates and fixed covariates- is employed. Resulting dynamic...

Binary events are involved in many economic decision problems. In recent years, considerable progress has been made in diverse disciplines in developing models for forecasting binary outcomes. We distinguish between two types of forecasts for binary events that are generally obtained as the...