Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy - namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and de-coupling/de-risking. It argues that while deflationary pressure is...

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

The European Union has reformed its fiscal rules in late 2024, making debt sustainability analysis (DSAs) the central steering tool for European fiscal policy. DSAs will be used to project debt-to-GDP ratios and derive fiscal policy requirements. In this paper, we show that DSAs currently...