Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte Carlo simulations and household surveys, we find that the technique gives rise to biases in poverty estimates, the sign and magnitude of which...

Although Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has experienced rapid growth in credit to households in recent years, most individuals are still credit constrained. This paper analyzes the determinants of household credit demand and credit constraints in BiH. To our knowledge, it is the first study on...

We study herd behavior in a laboratory financial market with financial market professionals. We compare two treatments, one in which the price adjusts to the order flow so that herding should never occur, and one in which event uncertainty makes herding possible. In the first treatment, subjects...

This paper proposes an improved gamma random generator. In the past, a lot of gamma random number generators have been proposed, and depending on a shape parameter (say, alpha) they are roughly classified into two cases: (i) alpha lies on the interval (0,1) and (ii) alpha is greater than 1,...

We consider the reorder point, order quantity inventory model where the demand, D, and the lead time, L, are independently and identically distributed (iid) randiom variables. This model is analytically intractable because of order crossover. However, we show how to resolve the intractability by...

The internal estimates of Loss Given Default (LGD) must reflect economic downturn conditions, thus estimating the “downturn LGD”, as the new Basel Capital Accord Basel II establishes. We suggest a methodology to estimate the downturn LGD distribution to overcome the arbitrariness of the...

An important contribution in sociophysics is the Galam’s model of rumors spreading. This model provides an explanation of rumors spreading in a population and explains some interesting social phenomena such as the diffusion of hoaxes. In this paper the model has been reformulated as a Markov...