An analysis focusing on the financial aspects is proposed for the strategy initiated by Metallgesellschaft (MG) in 1993-94 on American petroleum markets. According to a specific definition of hedging, and on the basis of a detailed survey of the facts, this strategy is described as speculative....

In the paper we consider the role of seasonal intercepts in seasonal cointegration analysis.

A common objective of social science and business research is the modeling of the relationship between demographic/psychographic characteristics of individuals and the likelihood of certain behaviors for these same individuals. Frequently, data on actual behavior are unavailable; rather, one has...

To clarify the impact of demand variability on single item stochastic inventory systems with setup costs, we subsume the distributional information of the lead time demand into its mean and variance and solve the resulting problem against the worst possible distribution in this class. For (Q, r)...

We compare the random preference, Fechner, and constant error (or "tremble") approaches to the stochastic modelling of choice under risk. Various combinations of these approaches are used with expected utility and rank-dependent theory to generate a set of econometric models. These are estimated...

The paper contributes to the stochastic volatility literature by developing simulation schemes for the conditional distributions of the price of long term bonds and their variability based on non-standard distributional assumptions and volatility concepts; it illustrates the potential value of...

Recent works on aggregate job flows in the US economy indicate that (i) specific sectoral shocks are important to account for aggregate job flows dynamics and that (ii) aggregate creation and destruction dynamics display significant non-linearities. This paper aims to study whether a simple...

We have shown that Eaton's (1992) Markov chain is recurrent if and only if its conjugate partner is recurrent. This result may be viewed as an extension od Diebolt and Robert's (1994) Duality Principle. It it interesting from a theoretical standpoint in that Eaton's (1992) results can now be...

This paper investigates the relative empirical performance of 3 stories of error' in decision-making experiments - finding that the constant-error-probability story does not fit particularly well, but that the white-noise and stochastic preference stories perform considerably better. The paper...

The article presents a stochastic interaction model based on Gibbs random fields to analyze technological competition in a population of heterogeneous adopters with local or global externalities. The relationships between both heterogeneity and externalities and imperfect and asymmetric...