We add some elements of prospect theory to an analytically tractable version of Lucas’s “islands†model and show that the inclusion of reference dependence, declining sensitivity and loss aversion into the agents’ utility function leads to three main results. First, the...

Using the model by Morris and Shin (2002), we distinguish between how people perceive a state and how they act upon it. We show than even for perceptions, where the coordination motive plays no role, improving the quality of public information does not always reduce the forecasting error. The...