Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight 'good news'...

This paper studies the problem of optimal reinsurance contract design. We let the insurer use dual utility, and the premium is an extended Wang's premiumprinciple. The novel contribution is that we allow for heterogeneity in the beliefs regarding the underlying probability distribution. We...

Little is known about perceptions of medical expenditure risks despite their presumed relevance to health insurance demand. This paper reports on a unique elicitation of subjective probabilities of medical expenditures from rural Ethiopians who are offered the opportunity to purchase health...