As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in activity across the U.S. credit default swaps … (CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a … significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and positions, accompanied by a spike in CDS premiums. We estimate an increase …

As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in activity across the U.S. credit default swaps … (CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a … significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and positions, accompanied by a spike in CDS premiums. We estimate an increase …

Azerbaijan’s economy. While deregulation and expanded fossil fuel production in the U.S. could drive oil prices down …, geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may offset these effects. Additionally, U.S. alignment with …