Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) provide a transparent framework for encoding causal structures and identifying causal effects. This paper demonstrates how DAGs help specify local projections (LPs) for estimating causal impulse responses. Examples illustrate how graphical rules can be used to...

Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank's direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single...

We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together...

The continuous expansion of income disparities poses serious threats to sustainable socioeconomic development. Concurrently, as a key driver of technological advancement, the influence of innovation on shaping income inequality trends has been extensively debated. This study employs panel...