This paper proposes a theoretical model that combines a present value model of the exchange rate with a variance-belief formation model to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the exchange rate. The model emphasizes the risk premium as its core and incorporates...

This paper investigates inconsistencies between countries' official exchange rate regime declarations (the so-called de jure exchange rate regimes) and their actual policy (de facto exchange rate regimes). These exchange rate regime gaps decrease the credibility of monetary policy and are...

As of the last working day of the year 2022 (30th December 2022), the official exchange rate against the US dollar (USD) was 448, while the naira USD exchange rate at the black market traded at 748—a premium of 300. The dollar had already peaked above 800 on the black market during the year...

This study analyzes the dynamics of exchange market pressure in Turkey by employing the Markov regime switching model for the period from January 2006 to December 2019. Our findings show that there are two regimes in the foreign exchange market, characterized as low- and high-pressure periods....

Milton Friedman’s famous 1953 essay, “The case for flexible exchange rates,” deals entirely with advanced nations. An interesting question is what Friedman thought about exchange rate and monetary regimes in emerging economies. In this paper I investigate how his views on the subject...

This paper assesses the stabilization properties of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes and aims to answer this research question: Does greater exchange rate flexibility help an economy’s adjustment to weather shocks? To address this question, the impact of weather shocks on real per...

From the perspective of the late 1930s and 1940s the dominant view was that the inter-war currency experience was a financial disaster. The view is perfectly encapsulated in the League of Nations' publication The Inter-war Currency Experience, the bulk of which was written by Ragnar Nurkse and...