In September 2022, the diffusion indices of wages and of the order-book level looked quite optimistic – 54% and 53% correspondingly. The diffusion index of output decreased by 11 percentage points, but this year this indicator is particularly unstable. The diffusion indices of the expected in...

Financial and economic crises repeat themselves at indefinite intervals. As in the Great Recession (also known as Subprime Crisis) of 2007/2008 there was a bundle of events and processes that preceded it and contributed to its emergence, whether it be economic, political, or ideological. Based...

In August 2021, the share of enterprises that reported that prices for purchased products rose again became very large (81%). This provoked an increase in the corresponding diffusion index, which for the fourth time per year reached 90% – the maximum value for the past 6 years. For the rest of...

The capture ratio is a widely-used investment performance measure. We study the statistical problem of estimating the capture ratio based on a finite number of observations of a fund's returns. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimator and use it for testing whether one fund has a...