We propose forecast encompassing tests for the Expected Shortfall (ES) jointly with the Value at Risk (VaR) based on flexible link (or combination) functions. Our setup allows testing encompassing for convex forecast combinations and for link functions which preclude crossings of the combined...

We propose forecast encompassing tests for the Expected Shortfall (ES) jointly with the Value at Risk (VaR) based on flexible link (or combination) functions. Our setup allows testing encompassing for convex forecast combinations and for link functions which preclude crossings of the combined...

To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, mis-specification, estimation uncertainty and...

To forecast an aggregate, we propose adding disaggregate variables, instead of combining forecasts of those disaggregates or forecasting by a univariate aggregate model. New analytical results show the effects of changing coefficients, mis-specification, estimation uncertainty and...

In Kenya, the general government is not defined consistently with government finance statistics (GFS) principles. Relationships between the central government and public nonfinancial and financial corporations are generally clearly defined. Government holdings of fully owned corporations and...

This report provides an assessment of fiscal transparency in Germany. The assessment has two parts. The first is a description of practices, prepared by the IMF staff on the basis of discussions with the authorities, their comprehensive responses to the fiscal transparency questionnaire, and...