The efficient market hypothesis predicts that asset prices reflect all available information. Recent experimental work found the rational expectation model to outperform the prior information model in contingent claim markets when traders hold homogeneous values, despite the no trade...

This paper decision-theoretically investigates belief aggregation method which allows consistently updating the aggregate belief.After confirming that the Pareto axiom and dynamic consistency require decision power of an individual to evolve proportionally to how much his/her prior has been...

HighlightsOrder aggregation and scheduling in a meal delivery problemAlessandro Agnetis, Matteo Cosmi, Gaia Nicosia, Andrea Pacifici• A new model for scheduling single- or dual-order deliveries• A branch and bound algorithm makes use of sophisticated lower bounding schemes• Extensive...

Machine learning algorithms dedicated to financial time series forecasting have gained a lot of interest. But choosing between several algorithms can be challenging, as their estimation accuracy may be unstable over time. Online aggregation of experts combine the forecasts of a finite set of...

There is growing evidence of producer-level idiosyncratic shocks affecting macroeconomic aggregates as they are propagated and amplified by input-output linkages, which are also known as the production network. Most of the recent models assume that this shock-propagation is instantaneous,...