This paper documents that inflation forecasts of the Federal Reserve systematically under-predicted inflation before Volker's appointment as Chairman and systematically over-predicted it afterward. It also documents that, under quadratic loss, commercial forecasts have information not contained...

Sequential estimation of the success probability p in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\hat{p}$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly...</equationsource></inlineequation>

Based on a new life test plan called a progressive first-failure-censoring scheme, the estimation problem of the reliability performances is considered for a semi-parameter class of distributions by using Bayes and non-Bayes methods. In order to investigate the accuracy of estimation, an...

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policy analysis in which decision makers are allowed to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values. The specification of the central bank objective is general...

The current paper seeks to build a theoretical explanation to understand why many central banks failed to reduce inflation variability despite having the desire. The result proves that central bank's preferences are a necessary condition but not sufficient to guarantee lower inflation...

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policyanalysis in which decision makers are allowed to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values. The specification of the central bank objective is general...

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policyanalysis in which decision makers are allowed to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values. The specification of the central bank objective is general...

In this paper we use 4 different time series models to forecast sales in a goods management system. We use a variety of forecast combining techniques and measure the forecast quality by applying symmetric and asymmetric forecast quality measures. Simple, rank-, and criteria-based combining...