Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

We investigate the impacts of financial investors in commodity markets using intraday trade-and- quote data for commodity futures. We find strong evidence of order flows and price impacts in agricultural futures markets associated with changes in the positions of index traders reported by the...

Financial institutions that issue commodity-linked notes hedge their liabilities by buying commodity futures. Henderson, Pearson and Wang (2015) show that these futures trades impact commodity futures prices and interpret this as evidence that uninformed financial flows into the commodity...