Search Results - subject:"belief elicitation"

How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Aydogan, Ilke; Baillon, Aurélien; Kemel, Emmanuel; Li, Chen - In: Quantitative Economics 16 (2025) 1, pp. 329-365

Belief-updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015420316

Replication Report of "Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility" by Danz, Vesterlund, and Wilson (2022)

Agyeah, George; Samad, Zeeshan; Drujano-Ochoa, Dario - 2025

This study replicates and extends the analysis of belief elicitation methods conducted by Danz et al. (2022). The … these results across different settings and belief elicitation tasks. These findings underscore the need for improved … methodologies that ensure both theoretical and behavioral incentive compatibility in belief elicitation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015444398

Replication report of "Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility" by Danz, Vesterlund, and Wilson (2022)

Agyeah, George; Samad, Zeeshan; Trujano-Ochoa, Dario - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015447625

How much do we learn? : measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Aydogan, Ilke; Baillon, Aurélien; Kemel, Emmanuel; Li, Chen - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 16 (2025) 1, pp. 329-365

Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015190350

Focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences : an experimental analysis

Ferreira, João V.; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Tarroux, Benoît - 2025

This paper experimentally examines the interplay between focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences. Contrary to common wisdom, there is no detectable evidence that equal splits act as salient focal points in distributional voting contexts. Participants mispredict others' preferences:...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015463557

Direct elicitation of parametric belief distributions : an application to inflation expectations

Gonzalez-Fernandez, Pedro; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, … - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization 233 (2025), pp. 1-33

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015466342

Focal points, beliefs, and distributional preferences: An experimental analysis

Ferreira, João V.; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Tarroux, Benoît - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015532192

Beliefs on Children's Human Capital Formation and Mothers at Work

Boinet, Césarine; Norris, Jonathan; Romiti, Agnese; … - 2024

Mothers may face pressure to sort out of the labor market due to perceptions that women have an absolute advantage in child-rearing, even when their earnings potential matches that of men. Guided by a simple model, we use a survey experiment where we equalize earnings potential across gender and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015210990

Anchoring and subjective belief distributions

Holm, Håkan J.; van Veldhuizen, Roel; Wengström, Erik; … - 2024

We investigate how the anchoring effect-a well-established cognitive bias-influences the full distribution of subjective beliefs. While prior research extensively examines the impact of anchoring and other biases on point estimates, their effect on higher moments of the distribution remains...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540518

Why is belief-action consistency so low? : the role of belief uncertainty

Wolff, Irenaeus; Folli, Dominik - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015206621